Script 9: AdGroup High CPA Outlier

Purpose

The Python script identifies and tags AdGroups with a Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) significantly higher than their peers within the same campaign over a 30-day period.

To Elaborate

The script is designed to analyze advertising performance data to identify AdGroups within campaigns that have a Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) significantly higher than their peers. It focuses on a 30-day period, excluding the most recent three days to account for conversion lag. The script processes data to calculate various performance metrics and uses statistical methods to detect anomalies in CPA values. By identifying these outliers, the script helps in optimizing ad spend by highlighting underperforming AdGroups that may require attention or adjustment.

Walking Through the Code

  1. Data Preparation:
    • The script first filters the input data to focus on a 30-day period, excluding the most recent three days.
    • It reduces the dataset to include only necessary columns and aggregates metrics like cost, conversions, and revenue by AdGroup within each campaign.
    • Rows without cost or conversions are removed to ensure meaningful analysis.
  2. Anomaly Detection:
    • The script defines functions to detect anomalies using statistical methods like the Interquartile Range (IRQ).
    • It calculates performance metrics such as CPA, ROAS, conversion rate, and average CPC for each AdGroup.
    • The find_peer_anomaly function identifies AdGroups with CPA values that are outliers compared to their campaign peers, considering only those with spend above the campaign median.
  3. Output Preparation:
    • Anomalies are tagged with a descriptive message indicating their CPA is much higher than the campaign average.
    • The results are compiled into a DataFrame and prepared for output, highlighting AdGroups that require attention.

Vitals

  • Script ID : 9
  • Client ID / Customer ID: 261324439 / 60268239
  • Action Type: Bulk Upload (Preview)
  • Item Changed: AdGroup
  • Output Columns: Account, Campaign, Group, Changes
  • Linked Datasource: M1 Report
  • Reference Datasource: None
  • Owner: Michael Huang (mhuang@marinsoftware.com)
  • Created by Michael Huang on 2023-02-02 12:36
  • Last Updated by Michael Huang on 2024-06-25 06:37
> See it in Action

Python Code

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#
# Tag AdGroup if CPA performance is abnormally high within Campaign
#
#
# Author: Michael S. Huang
# Date: 2023-02-22

RPT_COL_GROUP = 'Group'
RPT_COL_DATE = 'Date'
RPT_COL_ACCOUNT = 'Account'
RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN = 'Campaign'
RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN_ID = 'Campaign ID'
RPT_COL_GROUP_ID = 'Group ID'
RPT_COL_PUB_COST = 'Pub. Cost $'
RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV = 'Cost/Conv. $'
RPT_COL_ROAS = 'ROAS'
RPT_COL_CONV_RATE = 'Conv. Rate %'
RPT_COL_AVG_CPC = 'Avg. CPC $'
RPT_COL_CLICKS = 'Clicks'
RPT_COL_CONV = 'Conv.'
RPT_COL_REVENUE = 'Revenue $'
RPT_COL_IMPR = 'Impr.'
BULK_COL_ACCOUNT = 'Account'
BULK_COL_CAMPAIGN = 'Campaign'
BULK_COL_CHANGES = 'Changes'

outputDf[BULK_COL_CHANGES] = numpy.nan

## Data Prep

print(inputDf[RPT_COL_DATE].min(), inputDf[RPT_COL_DATE].max())

# 30-day lookback without most recent 3 days due to conversion lag
start_date = pd.to_datetime(datetime.date.today() - datetime.timedelta(days=33))
end_date = pd.to_datetime(datetime.date.today() - datetime.timedelta(days=3))

df_reduced = inputDf[ (inputDf[RPT_COL_DATE] >= start_date) & (inputDf[RPT_COL_DATE] <= end_date) ]

if (df_reduced.shape[0] > 0):
    print("reduced dates\\n", min(df_reduced[RPT_COL_DATE]), max(df_reduced[RPT_COL_DATE]))
else:
    print("no more input to process")

# reduce to needed columns
df_reduced = df_reduced[[RPT_COL_ACCOUNT, RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN, RPT_COL_GROUP, RPT_COL_DATE, RPT_COL_PUB_COST, RPT_COL_CONV, RPT_COL_REVENUE, RPT_COL_CLICKS]].copy()

# sum metics across dates
df_group_perf = df_reduced.groupby([RPT_COL_ACCOUNT, RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN, RPT_COL_GROUP]).sum()

# remove rows without cost or conversions
df_group_perf = df_group_perf[(df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CONV] > 0) & (df_group_perf[RPT_COL_PUB_COST] > 0)]

# index by campaign
df_group_perf = df_group_perf.reset_index().set_index([RPT_COL_ACCOUNT, RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN]).sort_index()

# calculate features
df_group_perf[RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV] = (df_group_perf[RPT_COL_PUB_COST] / df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CONV])
df_group_perf[RPT_COL_ROAS] = df_group_perf[RPT_COL_REVENUE] / df_group_perf[RPT_COL_PUB_COST]
df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CONV_RATE] = df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CONV] / df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CLICKS]
df_group_perf[RPT_COL_AVG_CPC] = (df_group_perf[RPT_COL_PUB_COST] / df_group_perf[RPT_COL_CLICKS])

## Define Anomaly Fuctions

# Finds anomalies using a certain function (e.g. sigma rule, IRQ etc.)
# data: DataFrame
#     Dataset with features
# func: func
#     Function to use to find anomalies
# features: list
#     Feature list
# thresh: int
#     Threshold value (e.g. 2/3 * sigma, 2/3 * IRQ)
# Returns: tuple
def get_feature_anomalies(data, func, features=None, thresh=3):

    if features:
        features_to_check = features
    else:
        features_to_check = data.columns 
        
    outliers_over = pd.Series(data=[False] * data.shape[0], index=data[features_to_check].index, name='is_outlier')
    outliers_under = pd.Series(data=[False] * data.shape[0], index=data[features_to_check].index, name='is_outlier')

    anomalies_summary = {}
    for feature in features_to_check:
        anomalies_mask_over, anomalies_mask_under, upper_bound, lower_bound = func(data, feature, thresh=thresh)
        anomalies_mask_combined = pd.concat([anomalies_mask_over, anomalies_mask_under], axis=1).any(1)
        anomalies_summary[feature] = [upper_bound, lower_bound, sum(anomalies_mask_combined), 100*sum(anomalies_mask_combined)/len(anomalies_mask_combined)]
        outliers_over[anomalies_mask_over[anomalies_mask_over].index] = True
        outliers_under[anomalies_mask_under[anomalies_mask_under].index] = True
        
#         print("anomalies_mask_combined: ", anomalies_mask_combined)
#         print("Outliers: ", outliers)
        
    anomalies_summary = pd.DataFrame(anomalies_summary).T
    anomalies_summary.columns=['upper_bound', 'lower_bound', 'anomalies_count', 'anomalies_percentage']
    
    anomalies_ration = round(anomalies_summary['anomalies_percentage'].sum(), 2)
#     print(f'Total Outliers Ration: {anomalies_ration} %')
    
    return anomalies_summary, outliers_over, outliers_under

# Finds outliers/anomalies using IRQ 
# data: DataFrame
# col: str
# thresh: int
#     Number of IRQ to apply 
# Returns: Series 
#     Boolean Series Mask of outliers 
def is_anomaly_irq(data, col, thresh):

    IRQ = data[col].quantile(0.75) - data[col].quantile(0.25)
    upper_bound = data[col].quantile(0.75) + (thresh * IRQ)
    lower_bound = data[col].quantile(0.25) - (thresh * IRQ)
#     print("IRQ calc: ", col, IRQ, upper_bound, lower_bound)
#     anomalies_mask = pd.concat([data[col] > upper_bound, data[col] < lower_bound], axis=1).any(1)
    anomalies_mask_over = data[col] > upper_bound
    anomalies_mask_under = data[col] < lower_bound
#     print("Anomalies mask: ", (anomalies_mask_over, anomalies_mask_under))
    
    return anomalies_mask_over, anomalies_mask_under, upper_bound, lower_bound

def find_peer_anomaly(df_slice, features, irq_threshold=1.8, outliers_desired=(True, True)):
    
    (want_outliers_over, want_outliers_under) = outliers_desired
   
    if (df_slice.shape[0] < 3):
        return
    
    idx = df_slice.index.unique()
    
    df_slice.reset_index(inplace=True)
    
    anomalies_summary_irq, outlier_over_irq, outlier_under_irq = get_feature_anomalies( \
                df_slice, \
                func=is_anomaly_irq, \
                features=features, \
                thresh=irq_threshold)
    
    median_cost = df_slice[RPT_COL_PUB_COST].median()
    
#     print(f"over: {outlier_over_irq}")
#     print("under: {outlier_under_irq}")
    
    # include over/under outliers as desired
    is_outlier_irq = np.logical_or(
                        np.logical_and(want_outliers_over, outlier_over_irq),
                        np.logical_and(want_outliers_under, outlier_under_irq)
    )
    
#     print("is_outlier\\n", is_outlier_irq)
    
    # ignore anomaly from low spend adgroups (greater than campaign median)
    is_outlier_irq = np.logical_and(is_outlier_irq, df_slice[RPT_COL_PUB_COST] > median_cost)
    
    if sum(is_outlier_irq) > 0:
        print(">>> ANOMALY", idx)
        print(anomalies_summary_irq)
        cols = [RPT_COL_GROUP, RPT_COL_PUB_COST, RPT_COL_CONV, RPT_COL_REVENUE] + features
        print(df_slice.loc[is_outlier_irq, cols])
        
    return is_outlier_irq

## Find CPA Anomalies

print("input shape:", df_group_perf.shape)
df_anomalies = pd.DataFrame()

# annotate via Marin Dimensions
def rowFunc(row):
    return 'CPA ${:,.2f} is much higher than campaign avg ${:,.2f}'.format(
        row[RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV], \
        row[RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV + '_median']
    )

for campaign_idx in df_group_perf.index.unique():
    df_campaign = df_group_perf.loc[[campaign_idx]].copy()
    df_campaign[RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV + '_median'] = df_campaign[RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV].mean()
    df_campaign[BULK_COL_CHANGES] = np.nan
    outliers = find_peer_anomaly(df_campaign, [RPT_COL_COST_PER_CONV], irq_threshold=2, outliers_desired=(True,False))

    if outliers is not None and sum(outliers) > 0:
        df_outliers = df_campaign.loc[outliers].copy()
        df_outliers[BULK_COL_CHANGES] = df_outliers.apply(rowFunc, axis=1)
        print(df_outliers)
        df_anomalies = pd.concat([df_anomalies, df_outliers], axis=0)

## Prepare Output
print(tableize(df_anomalies))
outputDf = df_anomalies[[RPT_COL_ACCOUNT, RPT_COL_CAMPAIGN, RPT_COL_GROUP, BULK_COL_CHANGES]]

Post generated on 2024-11-27 06:58:46 GMT

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